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Welcome back to our September recap. The weather is getting cooler, and the days are getting shorter, but we hope you’re finding some moments to enjoy the change of seasons, doing whatever it is that you enjoy this time of year.
Even though the US government is currently shut down, for the rest of us, the world keeps on spinning as we continue going about our business. The same goes for the financial markets; they just keep plugging away. In this recap, we will discuss how the markets performed in September and then get into our topic of the month, our takeaways from our time at the two conferences Joel and I recently took time out of the office to attend. I’ve also decided to flip the script and cover that first, so let’s dive in.
Takeaways From Recent Conferences
During the second half of September Joel and I had the opportunity to attend two different conferences, so we wanted to share some of our takeaways from those.
The first was our second trip to Huntington Beach for FutureProof, which is an investment and wealth planning conference that attracts approximately 5k attendees including financial planners, vendors, industry personalities, and prominent figures.
- AI Valuations – The general consensus is that the impacts of AI over the next 5-10 years will be profound, but opinions vary on how that will play out. Some believe it may have a negative impact on White Collar employment, as automation and computerized services replace some of those jobs. Other opinions were more optimistic, and even though AI may displace some workers, it has the potential to create new jobs and entire fields that we can’t even fathom today.
- AI Bubble? – Opinions varied on this, too. Some presenters felt valuations were way too high, while many others felt that the run was far from over, and that current valuations simply have priced in more future earnings than traditional pricing models would otherwise include.
- Crypto – It’s clear that crypto has become a lot more mainstream, especially recent rulings allowing crypto funds to be offered in 401(k) plans. At the conference, the push for crypto increased even further this year, however we are still skeptical of the long-term future of crypto and, personally, I still see a lot of similarities between the crypto craze and the dot com bubble. While I have come around to the idea that a couple tokens, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, will be around for the long term, but I don’t expect them to be valued like major proponents are saying it will be. That said, I firmly believe that sovereign currencies will be converted to treasury-back stable coins, however those will simply replace what we currently know as dollars, and I don’t see a play on that outlook.
- Private Credit – You may have heard about the rising popularity of Private Credit, which is the equivalent of Private Equity, but for the bond market. This is where businesses go to private investors to borrow money, rather than banks or issuing SEC-registered bonds. There was an extremely heavy push for these products at the conference and, while they offer interest rates right around the double-digit mark, my concern is that if borrowers couldn’t get lower-interest loans from banks while the economy has been booming over the past couple years, I’m not going to take the risk trying to get an extra couple percentage points of interest when we’ve already seen the broad economy slowing.
- Fintech – With the growth of AI, we are seeing this being integrated even more in software that advisors and analysts use for both investments and financial planning. We’ve already started using this within certain software we use within our practice and are evaluating expanding that further. Rest assured, our due diligence starts with protection of our clients’ data and, if we aren’t comfortable with that, we end conversations there, regardless of what that software may be able to do.
- Books
- How Not To Investby Barry Ritholtz– Rather than publishing another book on “how to invest”, Barry wrote about how to avoid mistakes when investing, integrating humor with reality
- Money Togetherby Heather & Doug Boneparth– How couples can approach money with greater fairness, respect, and love
- Market Outlook– Many of the speakers were bullish on the market for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026, but this is common for an investment conference. While this has caused me to revisit our portfolio positioning, there’s a good amount of data showing that the economy has already started slowing, and is continuing to slow further, which is what we had positioned portfolios for, and I haven’t found compelling enough evidence to justify a shift back to risk on at this time.
The other conference was the Retirement Tax Services Summit in Tempe, which I’ve attended for all three years it’s been running, but decided to bring Joel with me this year (and have already registered for both of us for 2026). This is a much more intimate conference focused on tax planning for individual clients and small businesses. While I usually only learn 1-2 tax ideas at these conferences, the bigger takeaways that I get relate to systems and processes for implementing these into our practice on a scalable basis, so that we can offer this to more of our clients and how to do it more time-efficiently, which is why I had Joel join me.
Again, while not news to me, here are some takeaways worth mentioning, as you all don’t stay on top of this like I do (which is part of what you pay us for):
- Tax Planning – Even though we’ve always had a heavy focus on tax planning, other financial planners are starting to recognize the massive value this adds for clients’ planning, so we’re going to continue striving to stay ahead of the game so that our clients are always a step ahead. Still, many advisors affiliated with banks, large financial institutions, and insurance companies are still prohibited from doing tax planning or providing tax advice, which simply reaffirmed the decision I made to launch Traverse in 2019 and leave Northwestern Mutual.
- Client Awareness – While we do a ton of work on behalf of clients behind the scenes, I’ve done a poor job of making clients aware of much of what we’ve done unless there is action needed on their part, and an even worse job when the result of the work we did was that the strategy didn’t make sense for them or that we decided not to make any changes. This is something I’m going to work on communicating better with you all.
- Simplifying the Complex – I’ve realized that I’ve moved away from using visuals and drawings to convey financial topics in meetings, which I’m going to work on getting back to, as these topics are second nature to me, but not as commonplace for many of you (and/or your spouse).
- Augusta Rule – Having business owners take advantage of the Augusta Rule on a more consistent basis, which allows you to rent out your primary residence for up to 14 days/year tax-free to your business, while the business still gets to claim the deduction.
- Roth Conversions – Getting more aggressive with partial Roth Conversions, given the permanent extension of Trump’s low tax rates, along with some of the new tax breaks, before a new administration comes in and potentially makes changes that would increase taxes (and is going to be inevitable at some point).
- One-Page Financial Plans – This will be a tough one for me, given my detail-oriented nature, but I’m going to try my hardest to start summarizing clients financial plans into a 1-2 page plan, focusing on the overriding goals and the most impactful, and time-sensitive, action items.
The Markets in September
In what has historically been the worst month for stocks, September brought us a strong showing across all equity markets. This was driven by a combination of economic resilience, monetary policy shifts, and renewed investor enthusiasm – especially in tech and small-cap stocks.
Emerging Markets led the pack with an eye-popping gain of over 7% while Developed Market stocks were the laggard but still posted a respectable gain of about 2%. This was the result of global investor confidence and momentum during the month.
The Nasdaq clocked in at an impressive surge of 5.7% and the S&P came in around 3.7%. In fact, last month was the best September month for the S&P in 15 years. Mega-cap stocks surged, fueled by optimism around artificial intelligence. Oracle and Nvidia made headlines with massive investments in OpenAI, boosting investor sentiment.
The Russell 2000 Small Cap index was up over 3% and the Dow was up 2%. As a result, the Russell finally reached a new all-time high in September, thanks to the Fed ending its nine-month pause and cutting rates by 25bps. Rate cuts typically help small caps more as lower rates reduce borrowing costs. Smaller companies rely more on borrowing than larger companies, and when they’re spending less money on borrowing costs, it increases liquidity.
Oracle’s September to Remember
We don’t normally highlight specific stocks, but we thought Oracle’s September surge was notable. In September, Oracle Corporation experienced a dramatic surge in its stock price, climbing nearly 40% in a single day and closing the month with a 24.4% overall gain. This rally was triggered by Oracle’s Q1 earnings call, during which the company revealed a staggering 359% year-over-year increase in its cloud unit’s remaining performance obligations (RPO), totaling $455 billion. The announcement of a $300 billion, five-year contract with OpenAI to provide AI compute capacity was a key catalyst, signaling Oracle’s emergence as a major player in the AI infrastructure space. Investors responded enthusiastically, viewing the massive backlog as a strong indicator of future revenue growth, and analysts described the quarter as “momentous” and “shocking in a good way”. The surge was so significant that it briefly made Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison the world’s richest person, surpassing Elon Musk with a net worth increase of over $100 billion in a single day.
Beyond the OpenAI deal, Oracle’s strategic positioning in the AI and cloud computing sectors further fueled investor optimism. The company’s Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is projected to grow 77% year-over-year to $18 billion in fiscal 2026, with expectations to reach $144 billion by 2030. Oracle also announced plans to expand its multi-cloud data center footprint to 71 locations, enabling seamless integration with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. Additionally, leadership changes and potential regulatory wins—such as overseeing TikTok’s U.S. operations—added to the bullish sentiment. Altogether, these developments positioned Oracle not just as a legacy database provider, but as a central force in the AI-driven future of enterprise computing.
US Equity Sectors
Turning back to look at US sector performance for the month, we saw eight out of the eleven sectors with positive gains. Technology (+7.53%) and Communication Services (+6.64%) led sector gains in September, which shouldn’t be a surprise based on the NASDAQ’s performance. Major announcements—such as Oracle’s massive AI infrastructure deal mentioned above and continued momentum from companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta—boosted confidence in these sectors. Additionally, robust earnings reports and upward revisions in growth forecasts for digital advertising and cloud services reinforced the narrative that these industries are central to the next wave of innovation, attracting significant capital inflows.
On the flip side, Energy (-0.32%), Consumer Staples (-2.31%), and Materials (-2.42%) underperformed due to a combination of macroeconomic and sector-specific pressures. Energy faced headwinds from falling crude oil prices amid concerns about slowing global demand and rising inventories. Consumer Staples struggled as investors rotated away from defensive sectors toward growth-oriented plays, while persistent inflation in input costs squeezed margins. Materials were hit hardest, reflecting weaker industrial demand and declining commodity prices, signaling caution around global manufacturing activity and construction trends.
Bond Performance
In September, bond markets posted modest gains across most major indices, largely driven by stabilizing interest rate expectations and steady economic data. Intermediate bonds performed well again in September after a strong showing in August supported by investor demand for safety amid lingering global uncertainty. Shorter-duration instruments like Treasury Bills and Government/Credit underperformed, as their limited sensitivity to rate movements offered less upside during the rally. Overall, September’s gains were modest but positive, signaling cautious optimism in fixed income markets.
Closing Comments
That’s a wrap for September. We appreciate the trust you place in us to guide your financial journey and help you stay focused on what matters most. As we transition into fall, we hope you’re finding time to enjoy the season and the things that bring you joy, knowing we’ve got your back.
See you next month!
Laurence
Disclosures
Investing involves the risk of loss. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be, nor regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Laurence Schiffman and Traverse Planning are affiliates of Clear Creek Financial Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed here are solely those of Traverse Planning and do not reflect the opinions of Clear Creek Financial Management.
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