Welcome back to our monthly recap for April. Here in Colorado, from a weather perspective, March felt more like May, and April felt more like a typical March. While the spring weather may not always be to our liking, there wasn’t much not to like about the markets in April as they pushed towards all-time highs.
In this recap, we will discuss how the markets performed in April and then dive into our topic of the month: Market Timing: Gotta Be Right Twice.
The Markets in March
April delivered a sharp rebound across global equity markets, reversing much of March’s risk-off sentiment and reestablishing a more constructive tone for investors. All major indices finished the month solidly higher, led by growth-oriented segments of the market. The Nasdaq gained 15.31%, marking its strongest monthly performance in five years, while the S&P 500 rose 10.49%, also its best month over that same period. Small-cap stocks participated in the rally as well, with the Russell 2000 advancing 12.21%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a more modest but still notable gain of 7.24%. International equities lagged somewhat but remained firmly positive, with Emerging Markets rising 14.73% and developed international markets (MSCI EAFE) up 7.56%.
The primary catalyst for April’s strong performance was a meaningful de-escalation in geopolitical tensions early in the month, highlighted by the announcement of a ceasefire agreement involving Iran. This development significantly reduced fears of broader regional conflict and alleviated concerns around potential disruptions to global energy supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices stabilized and, in some cases, retraced prior gains, easing inflationary pressures and improving the outlook for both consumers and corporate margins. The reduction in geopolitical risk premiums helped drive a swift rotation back into equities, particularly in areas that had been most heavily penalized in March.
In addition to the geopolitical backdrop, the market benefited from improving investor sentiment and a re-risking dynamic that favored higher-beta and growth-oriented assets. Technology and innovation-driven sectors led the rebound, contributing to the outsized gains in the Nasdaq, while broader participation across sectors supported the S&P 500’s strong showing. Although international markets trailed U.S. equities, their positive returns reflect a more stable global environment and a partial recovery in risk appetite. Overall, April underscored how quickly market conditions can shift when key macro risks recede, with diversification once again proving beneficial as correlations normalized and leadership broadened.
US Equity Sectors
April’s sector performance reflected a clear shift in leadership as markets moved decisively back toward growth and cyclical exposure following March’s broad-based selloff. Technology led the way by a wide margin, surging 20.02% for the month and accounting for a significant portion of the overall market rebound. Consumer Discretionary (+8.60%), Industrials (+7.95%), and Real Estate (+8.74%) also turned in strong results, signaling improving sentiment around both economic growth and interest rate stability. Meanwhile, Financials (+5.59%) and Communication Services (+5.10%) participated in the advance, contributing to a more balanced and constructive sector backdrop than what was observed in the prior month.
This rotation was driven in large part by the early April ceasefire involving Iran, which eased concerns around global energy supply disruptions and helped bring oil prices off their highs. The resulting decline in inflation pressures provided relief to both consumers and businesses, supporting sectors that are more sensitive to input costs, financing conditions, and discretionary spending. Lower volatility and improved visibility into the macro environment encouraged investors to re-engage with areas that had been heavily discounted in March, particularly within growth and economically sensitive segments.
On the other end of the spectrum, leadership from the prior month faded. Energy declined –2.63% as crude prices retraced, while Health Care slipped slightly (–0.42%). More defensive areas such as Utilities (+2.09%) and Consumer Staples (+2.84%) lagged the broader market, reflecting a diminished need for downside protection as risk appetite improved. Materials (+3.00%) posted modest gains but trailed the more cyclical leaders. Taken together, April’s sector returns illustrate a meaningful reordering of market leadership, with capital flowing away from defensiveness and back into areas more leveraged to growth and declining macro uncertainty.
Bond Performance
April proved to be a more constructive month for fixed income markets, with modest positive returns across most bond sectors as yields stabilized and geopolitical headlines drove pockets of volatility but not a broad selloff. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-USD (USD Hedged) Index led all categories with a gain of +0.41%, as international bonds benefited from a combination of currency hedging dynamics and demand for non-U.S. sovereign debt amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and its effects on global energy markets. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index posted a more muted +0.11% return, as investment-grade credit held its ground despite continued pressure on longer-duration Treasuries.
Treasury yields remained notably volatile throughout the month, with the Iran conflict continuing to push energy-driven inflation concerns to the forefront in a market already contending with persistent core price pressures. That volatility was most apparent in the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index, which finished the month marginally in the red at –0.07%, the lone index to post a negative return. Shorter-maturity bonds continued to demonstrate their resilience, with the Bloomberg U.S. Government/Credit 1–3 Year Index gaining +0.24% and 1–3 month Treasury bills returning a steady +0.30%, reflecting the continued appeal of shorter-duration holdings in an environment where the Federal Reserve remains on hold. The Fed held the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its March meeting, with Chair Powell noting that near-term inflation expectations have risen on the oil price surge and that it was too soon to assess the full economic impact of the conflict.
Overall, April represented a meaningful improvement from March's broad-based declines, though the recovery was uneven across the yield curve. Longer-duration Treasuries continued to face headwinds from elevated energy prices, sticky inflation, and uncertainty around the Fed's path forward, while shorter-duration and internationally diversified exposures proved more rewarding. The month reinforced a familiar theme: in a high-volatility, inflation-sensitive environment, duration positioning and geographic diversification remain critical levers within fixed income portfolios.
Topic of the Month – Market Timing: Gotta Be Right Twice
Market timing requires a skill that’s almost impossible to master.
An investor not only has to determine when stock prices have peaked (so you can sell), but also when they have bottomed (so you can buy).
In recent weeks, many people have muttered, “I should have sold before the events escalated in the Middle East.” (BTW, some were the same people who last year said, “I should have sold before the tariff talk picked up.”)
Hypothetically, let’s say you did have the foresight to sell in February 2026 before the Middle East became front-page news. Would you have had the courage to buy in late March when the Dow Industrials closed lower for the 5th consecutive week? When oil prices topped $110?
Maybe. But what’s your next market timing strategy? And the next after that?
“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield,” said Warren Buffett, who is well known for encouraging investors not to watch the markets too closely.
At this point, it’s best to anticipate more volatility in 2026. The Middle East will continue to make headlines, the midterm elections are in November, and the Fed’s next move on interest rates is uncertain.
So, stay focused on the strategy we created. Enjoy the longer days leading up to summer. And remember, as today’s chart shows, missing one or two days can make a big difference!
Closing Comments
That's all for our April recap. As always, we're grateful for the trust you place in us, and we don't take it lightly. Markets will have their moments—some calm, some turbulent—but our commitment to keeping you informed and on track never wavers.
We'll see you next month.